Contradicting Cross-Strait Assessments：Tsai Administration Creates Unease
United Daily News, March 8, 2024
Amidst the breakdown of cross-strait negotiations over the Kinmen-Xiamen maritime dispute, Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng conveyed two crucial messages during interpellation at the Legislative Yuan. First, he emphasized the gravity of the cross-strait situation, hinting at the imminent possibility of military conflict. Second, he disclosed a shift in the military's criteria for initiating the "first strike." As the transition between administrations unfolds, questions arise about whether Minister Chiu's statements are inadvertent remarks or a deliberate effort to speak candidly. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration must address these concerns and provide clarity to the public.
From the ban on organized tours to mainland China to the recent incident of a mainland fishing boat capsizing near Kinmen, despite 15 rounds of negotiations, the tensions across the strait are escalating, and mutual animosity continues to rise.
As the Kinmen-Xiamen maritime dispute intensifies, scholar Chao Chun-shan, who accompanied KMT Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia during his recent visit to mainland China, issued a warning upon returning to Taiwan. Chao noted an unprecedented deterioration in cross-strait relations during this visit, surpassing the severity witnessed during the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis and then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit two years ago. He even stated that he wouldn't be surprised if the mainland resorts to military action against Taiwan.
Chao’s pro-KMT background might lead some to label him as an alarmist. However, Minister Chiu’s public statements in the Legislative Yuan expressing concern over the cross-strait situation and the risk of unintentional conflict, stating that "once the battle starts, it's not unexpected," and using phrases like "living in fear every day," are bound to garner significant societal attention. There's growing apprehension about whether the Taiwan Strait is on the brink of war.
Simultaneously, Minister Chiu declared a change in the definition of "first strike." Previously a “first strike” was when the adversary fired gunfire and missiles; now, an incursion by air or sea entities alone would be viewed as a first strike. Over the past eight years of DPP rule, cross-strait relations have worsened with frequent intrusions by mainland Chinese military planes and ships. Now, the adjustment to the military's response raises concerns that a miscalculation could lead to an outbreak of hostilities.
American think tank Council on Foreign Relations has consistently listed the Taiwan Strait crisis as a “Tier 1 contingency” for four consecutive years, drawing global attention to the potential powder keg. While Secretary-General Wellington Koo of the National Security Council (NSC) recently stated that national security is manageable in the new year, Minister Chiu has openly expressed worries about a cross-strait conflict, and his finding it difficult to sleep. Minister Chiu's alarming messages in the Legislative Yuan contrast sharply with the silence from the Office of the President and top national security officials. The conflicting assessments from President Tsai Ing-wen’s NSC and Ministry of National Defense on the Taiwan Strait are deeply unsettling for the public.